LibGuides: POL 200: Analyzing Politics: Stats and Polls

Which Polls Should You Believe?

As with all information sources, you need to look at poll data critically. Where did it come from? Who was polled? What methods were used? What might make you question its results?

Nate Cohn recently outlined some of the issues for interpreting election polls in a New York Times article, "The Savvy Person's Guide to Reading the Latest Polls." Or see "Harry's Guide to 2016 Election Polls" from 538/On the Media.

Find this and additional Breaking News Consumer Handbooks at On the Media's website.

In the news:

"Pollsters Scramble as Fewer People Take Their Phone Calls" Ryan Knutson in the Wall Street Journal.

Sources for Opinion Polls

This list is fairly US-centered; for public opinion data from other regions of the world, visit the Researching Countries tab and consult the Statistics and Data - Worldwide and Statistics and Data - Regional boxes.

American Religion Data Archive
Mostly using public opinion polls, this site provides demographic and attitudinal information about American's religious beliefs.
Associated Press/IPSOS Poll
Annotated list of polls with a focus on the economy and politics; includes US, Canada, and international polls.
FiveThirtyEight Politics
A site that analyzes poll and other data for politics, sports, economics, science, and culture. The underlying data is also made available in many cases.
Gallup Poll - Ref HN 90 .P8 G35
An annual compilation of opinion poll statistics gathered by the Gallup Organization, covering from 1935 to the present. Indexes make it easy to find figures from different years. This organization also maintains a website which contains selected data at Gallup.com.
General Social Survey
The GSS contains a standard 'core' of demographic, behavioral, and attitudinal questions, plus topics of special interest. Many of the core questions have remained unchanged since 1972 to facilitate time-trend studies as well as replication of earlier findings.
LAPOP-Latin American Public Opinion Project
Results from most Latin American countries as well as Madagascar, Israel, and Albania.
Marist Poll
Based at a college, this survey research center conducts polls on politics and a variety of cultural and social issues.
Monmouth University Poll Reports
A university-based public opinion survey research institute.
New York Times Poll Watch
An excellent, reliable source for polls and public opinion data.
Pew Research Center
A non-partisan site that researches politics, media, social trends, religion, science and technology, Hispanic Americans, and global opinion.
Polling Report
An independent, nonpartisan resource on trends in American public opinion.
Quinnipiac University Poll
Based at a college, this organization conducts phone interviews on politics and policy.
Real Clear Politics
Curates opinion poll data on a variety of issues.
Survey Research Center
From the University of Michigan.
Washington Post Polls
Results of surveys conducted by the Washington Post as well as links to other polls.
World Public Opinion
Results of studies from polls conducted around the world.
World Values Survey
Tables and graphs from World Values Survey conducted 1981-2004.

Strategies for Finding and Using Stats

There is a lot of data out there. To find and use it, ask yourself:

WHO would be interested in collecting it? Exmples include government agencies, interest groups, trade associations, think tanks, researchers studying the issue . . . If you don't know, look at sources for statistics in secondary sources such as the Statistical Abstract or in the references at the end of an article.

WHERE would it be published? Does the creator of the data set make it free online? Is it historical, so likely to be published in print?

WHEN was it published? What might have been going on in the world that would affect either how it was collected or how you might interpret it?

HOW was it gathered? Knowing what populations were included, what method was used for reaching those populations, when it was gathered and so on will help you assess the value and the limitations of the data.

WHAT will you use it for? Make sure when you include social statistics in your work that you represent the data accurately and fairly.

Statistical Sources

American National Election Studies
With data from 1948-present, the ANES is widely considered the leading source for election-related data, conducted before and after every presidential election.
Bureau of Justice Statistics
Lots of data on crime, victims, offenders, law enforcement, and topics such as drugs and crime. Includes the Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics Online.
Bureau of the Census
The U. S. Census is a major source of data, including data used for mapping with GIS.
Comparative Agendas: Comparing Policies Worldwide
Collects and analyzes data to track policy outcomes in the US and other countries from World War II to the present. Includes downloadable datasets.
FiveThirtyEight Data Files
Via GitHub - a selection of the data and the data-processing scripts behind the articles, graphics and interactives at FiveThirtyEight.
Google Public Data Explorer
Contains data sets and metrics from a wide variety of publicly available data sources.
Guide to Statistics
The Gustavus Library's guide to statistics has many suggested resources for finding stats.
Legislative Explorer
Data and tools for visualizing legislative patterns.
National Center for Education Statistics
A vast collection of data on schools, teachers, educational attainment, and more. From the U.S. Department of Education.
National Center for Health Statistics
A wealth of data compiled by the Centers for Disease Control. Click on FastStats for health statistics by topic.
Statistical Abstract of the United States - Ready Reference HA 202 .P76
This is perhaps the single most useful small package of statistical information available. It includes hundreds of tables of figures on population, economics, social factors, etc., with references to the original sources.
Statistical Sites on the World Wide Web
A cleanly-organized and helpful guide to US and world statistical sources. From the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Offers statistics on consumer price, employment, wages, inflation, productivity, the U.S. economy, etc. This is a gold mine of current statistical data and reports covering consumer spending, employment, wages, productivity, occupations, international trade, and industries. Also shows "The U.S. Economy at a Glance."

Books in the Reference Collection

There are many reference books that contain statistics. Several are listed below, but you may want to browse the collection or talk with a librarian to find more.

Reference books are located on the main floor of the library, Beck Hall side.

Historical Statistics of the United States: earliest times to the present - Ref HA 202 .H57 2006 (5 vols.)
Revised update to Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970, Bicentennial ed. Washington U.S. Dept. of Commerce:GPO Includes bibliographic references and index,illustrated with maps, updates previous publishing with U.S. Census 2000 data.
International Historical Statistics: The Americas: 1750-2005 - Ref HA 175 .M55 2007
Offers time-series statistics on population, labor force, agriculture, industry, external trade, transport and communications, finance, prices, education, and national accounts. Other volumes in this series cover Africa, Asia, Oceania (HA 4675 .M553 2007) and Europe (Ref HA 1107 .M5 2007).
International Historical Statistics: The Americas - Ref HA 175 .M55 2007
Comparative historical statistics for North and South America.
International Historical Statistics: Europe - Ref HA 1107 .M55 2007
Comparative historical statistics for Europe.

Political Analysis from FiveThirtyEight

Visualizing Data

There are some useful tools for visualizing data. Geographic Information Systems combine data with geo-location information to create maps. Other tools can show change over time. As with any use of information, use your best judgement. Make sure you know the limitations of the data itself and make sure that it's being represented in a way that doesn't distort it. Here are just two examples; search the internet to find more.

Gapminder
A tool created by nonprofit group founded in Sweden who wanted ways to make it easy to see world social trends over time. Users can select data to visualize.
Electoral Map and Forecasts
Predictions visualized by the New York Times.

An Example of a Data Visualization

This data is from an analysis conducted by Clio Andris et all, "The Rise of Partisanship and Super-Cooperators in the U.S. House of Representatives," PLoS One April 21, 2015 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0123507 with data from the Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives collected by GovTrack.